Sundsvall – Jonkopings Sodra predictions

Gift from G.I.F.?

Today is only Wednesday, but I bet on the Sunday’s game because I think the odds may drop by the end of the week. I’m talking about the game Sundsvall – Jonkopings Sodra in Sweden Allsvenskan. I don’t quite understand what the bookies were thinking when they offered such betting lines. Bookmakers offer about even odds for the success of both sides. Seriously? However, even on the basis of the status of these teams, G.I.F are much stronger club and they will meet the opponent at their stadium. I think just that facts are enough to recognize the hosts as a favourite of this clash.

H2H statistics look very pointedly! The hosts won at Norrporten Arena five of the last seven meetings against Sodra. So Sundsvall never had a problem with this opponent and here it is not worth looking for a dirty trick. What other reasons can be for the success of the guests? Maybe it’s current form of the teams? I don’t think so… Yes, Jonkopings look strong in the attack at the moment, but at the same time, they have huge problems in the defence! It’s unlikely they can score more than their opponent today because the hosts look irreproachable in defence as they have conceded only one goal in their last four rounds. Only one club can break through Sundsvall’s defence recently, it was the team with the best attack in the division at the moment! There are no doubts that the guests do not have such high-level strikers like Elfsborg have.

Sodra were able to get three victories, but two of them were in games against outsiders. It doesn’t impress me! On the other hand, Sundsvall have played four previous rounds against the strongest clubs in the division and managed to keep draws. G.I.F. have four draws in a row now, which means the probability of another one is extremely low. The hosts are much stronger club than Sodra, they are in great form and will play in full view of their dedicated fans. What else do we need to bet? The home side does not have obvious problems with line-up. Juho Pirttijoki, Lars Krogh Gerson, David Myrestam, Samuel Aziz and Erik Granat may not be able to play, but only Gerson are in automatic starting XI.

I rate chances for another draw for the hosts no more than 15%. As for me, the probability of home win today is 50% and 35% of away success. Bookmakers estimate the probability of a home win of 37%. My money says ‘Sundsvall to win’ is a value bet. Nevertheless, the guests remain one of the most entertaining teams in the division and probably will be able to score. That’s why I split the total amount of the bet into two parts and try to get extra-winnings!

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