Allsvenskan 2017 season preview: Swedish football betting predictions

Betting predictions: Allsvenskan 2017

It`s summer and it means that all major European football tournaments go on holidays and all football fans will devote their attention to Scandinavian championships. Undoubtedly Swedish Allsvenskan is the most interesting and entertaining league among the northern tournaments. Let’s recall the previous season, as it is impossible to predict the future without knowledge of the past. In our case it`s impossible to predict the outcomes of games. We will analyse what happened to teams in the post-season time and try to draw conclusions. Who will get the title this time? Who will get relegated? Who will be the biggest sensation of the season? Who will make their fans happy and who will disappoint? And of course let’s try to define key trend lines for our future betting.

What are the chances? (with bet365)

Sweden is limited to the geographic distance, but even in Allsvenskan it is important where a match takes place – at home or on the road. The hosts traditionally dominated at their stadiums last season.

Most of Sweden has a temperate climate, but many clubs use artificial turf and each bettor needs to know what cover at which stadium is used. It is very simple – the teams that use an artificial turf at their home stadium play on the road worse if their opponent’s stadium has a natural turf and vice versa. You need to know this information!

There are teams who play on artificial turf: AFC Eskilstuna, BK Häcken, Djurgårdens IF, GIF Sundsvall, Hammarby IF, IF Elfsborg, IFK Norrköping, Örebro SK, Östersunds FK.

There are teams who play on natural turf: AIK, Halmstads BK, IFK Göteborg, IK Sirius, Jönköpings Södra IF, Kalmar FF, Malmö FF.

Despite the fact that Sweden is a small country, travel to another city can become very exhausting for teams and the distance between the stadiums still matters. Besides, you should not forget about the meetings between teams from the same city, because the outcome of the derby is always unpredictable, and hosts or guests status is rather relative in this case. To understand better just take a look at the Swedish football map.

Let’s study basic statistical indicators of the previous season. It is important to understand that regardless of their successful performance, all teams normally keep playing in their own style. If a club employed defensive scheme, most likely, it will use this style of play in a new season. What team was the most entertaining and productive last season? Who became the most boring team?

Traditionally the most productive teams were Djurgarden, Elfsborg and Norrkoping. This is not surprising, we can assume that these clubs will play entertaining football and score three or more goals in 60% of their matches this year. The most boring teams were Jonkopings, AIK and Ostersund, which is also normal, as these teams have always played a defensive football.

As we see from the table above, the likelihood that both teams will score does not depend on their level and strength. This indicator mostly depends on the balance of the lines of defence and attack. But in any case teams with a good defence rarely have BTTS. For example, AIK, Malmo and Ostersund normally have BTTS in less than half of their matches. You should also pay your attention to the team attack parameter (column ‘Failed to score’). As we can see, the effectiveness of the attack does not rely on the team level! For instance, such high-level teams as Elfsborg, AIK, Hacken and Djurgarden have an average performance, while one of the outsiders Kalmar scored in almost all games!

Who has the best defence in the division among Swedish teams? The answer you`ll find in the table below, and these indicators as a rule will be the more or less the same in the next season.

So the 93rd season of Allsvenskan starts on 1 April and ends on 5 November this year! Let’s recall what the clubs will fight for, it is important to know their targets and ambitions for this season. As usual each team plays each opponent at home and away for a total of 30 matches. The two lowest placed clubs are relegated. The third lowest club will play-off against the third-placed club in Superettan. The winners of Allsvenskan qualify for the Champions League. Second and third placed teams qualify for the Europa League.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Johan Wiland, Lasse Nielsen, Rasmus Bengtsson, Anton Tinnerholm, Behrang Safari, Yoshimar Yotun, Magnus Wolff Eikrem, Oscar Lewicki, Jo Inge Berget, Anders Christiansen, Markus Rosenberg.

Malmo remain the best division team and one of the main contenders for the title. The team is unbeatable at their stadium and is known for their impeccable defence.

Prediction: The winners of Allsvenskan.

What to bet on? Most of the points will be taken by the team at home, but the odds for winning will be low and it is unlikely to make a lot of money on such bets! Malmo have a strong defence, that’s why it makes sense to bet on ‘Win to Nil’ in home games.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

David Mitov Nilsson, Linus Wahlqvist, Christopher Telo, Jon Gudni Fjoluson, Nikola Tkalcic, Filip Dagerstal, Niklas Barkroth, Gudmundur Thorarinsson, David Moberg Karlsson, Sebastian Andersson, Karl Holmberg.

Norrkoping are one of the most entertaining and strongest clubs in Sweden. They have been playing with the same squad for several years which makes them balanced and well-coordinated. After winning the Allsvenskan in 2015 the club wants to repeat their success, but it is unlikely they will be able to get ahead of Malmo.

Prediction: Possible runner-up.

What to bet on? Norrkoping prefer to play attacking football and if the team concede a few goals at their Arena, they rarely manage to keep clean sheets in the away matches. Over 2.5 on the road will be a smart choice.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Oscar Linner, Per Karlsson, Daniel Sundgren, Sauli Vaisanen, Noah Sonko Sundberg, Simon Thern, Kristoffer Olsson, Johan Blomberg, Stefan Ishizaki, Henok Goitom, Sulejman Krpic.

AIC celebrated their last winning of Allsvenskan in 2009 but they are not title contenders anymore. However the team finished previous four seasons in the top 3. Last season was a very successful for them as they kept fighting for the title until the last round. This year they do not look ready to compete with Malmo, but will manage to take a high place.

Prediction: 3rd place.

What to bet on? The main advantage of the team is its defence. Most likely a large number of matches will be under 2.5 goals. Stakes like ‘Win to nil’ or ‘Win via one-goal margin’ can become valuable.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Erik Dahlin, Emil Salomonsson, Mattias Bjarsmyr, Thomas Rogne, Scott Jamieson, Mads Albaek, Soren Rieks, Sebastian Eriksson, Mix Diskerud, Henrik Bjordal, Tobias Hysen.

Fans have been waiting for the title of the 18-time champion of Sweden for 10 years and it seems they still will have to wait. The team has a great potential and strong squad, but they have not been able to balance their defence and attack so far. The team must score more goals! Their main problems are poor tactics and too simple football. Nevertheless, this season they can surprise, although you should not count on it. Goteborg may become the second or completely fail the season – you’ll never know it for sure…

Prediction: 3rd – 5th place.

What to bet on? It is unlikely that the Angels will show bright and productive football; most likely their wins will be hard with one-goal margin, especially on the road. In this case, it makes sense to bet ‘Goteborg to win one-goal margin’, if you are confident in the success of the team and ‘Asian handicap +1.5’ if you have doubts. Goteborg will play close and tough games this season.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Andreas Andersson, Sotiris Papagiannopoulos, Douglas Bergqvist, Ronald Mukiibi, Dennis Widgren, Saman Ghoddos, Johan Bertilsson, Tom Pettersson, Brwa Nouri, Fouad Bachirou, Alhaji Gero.

Ostersund is a unique phenomenon in Swedish football; the club was formed only in 1996 and spent 16 years in the minor divisions. They advanced to Superettan in 2013 and this will be only their second year in the elite division! This is a tremendous progress! Ostersund surprisingly ended the previous season in eighth place but this year the team can deliver even better results. At the same time, the successes of this young team is not only surprising, it`s atypical for Swedish football! Ostersund can be named Swedish Barcelona because of their style of football. The team can become the main sensation of the season.

Prediction: 4th – 6th place.

What to bet on? The answer is simple – bet on Ostersund!

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Andreas Isaksson, Jonas Olsson, Elliot Kack, Niklas Gunnarsson, Tim Bjorkstrom, Kim Kallstrom, Kevin Walker, Marcus Hansson, Othman El Kabir, Magnus Eriksson, Tino Kadewere.

Djurgardens have finished in the sixth or seventh place since 2012, representing a typical strong mid-division. This season will probably be no exception and the team will take its usual place in the middle of the standings. It is unlikely that the Iron Stoves finish lower than their favourite sixth place. The problem is that the team has not become stronger this year. Moreover they have two new competitor rivals, Sirius and Ostersund.

Prediction: near 7th place.

What to bet on? Djurgardens are an unpredictable team! Their season traditionally consists of winning and losing streaks. So just keep a close eye on the team’s form, if the Iron Stoves gain the form – they will be able to beat anyone, but if they are on a poor run of form, they won’t be able to beat even absolute outsiders. What you can always count on is a productive football – Over 2.5 or BTTS are must have bets!

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Josh Wicks, Oscar Pehrsson, Jesper Arvidsson, Karl Larson, Philip Haglund, Niklas Thor, Kim Skoglund, Ian Sirelius, Kingsley Sarfo, Ante Bjorkebaum, Moses Ogbu.

It is very difficult to predict the future of this interesting club. On the one hand Sirius have great potential and the team makes a strong impression. They demonstrate quality football and will not definitely relegate this year, but how high a newcomer will be able to climb is a good question. On the other hand, Sirius have a modest squad and there are no expensive or famous players in the club. Moreover, the team cannot be called young, because they have many veteran players in their line-up who can just get tired by the end of the season. This means that Blasvart will play unstable and they still have to get used to Allsvenskan level.

Prediction: 7th – 10th place.

What to bet on? Sirius have a strong defence and will probably play defensive football on the road, so ‘Under 2.5’ can become a regular bet. If we talk about wins, then it’s better to bet on home games as this team is hard to beat at their stadium.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Ogmundur Kristinsson, Birkir Mar Saevarsson, Mats Solheim, Mario Musa, Richard Magyar, Gershon Koffie, Arnor Smarason, Johan Persson, Jiloan Hamad, Bjorn Paulsen, Pa Amat Dibba.

Hammarby are a typical average performer with no stars or high-class players in their squad. However, this team can surprise! Bajen won`t probably achieve any success this season, but will be able to create several sensations. The team can produce a few winning streaks, but will be unstable and finish the season in the middle of the standings without any ambitions.

Prediction: near 10th place.

What to bet on? Hammarby will be a hard-to-beat team, so if you want to bet on them, do it only in home games and these games will not be productive, but the team can play high-scoring matches on the road. A lot of draws are also possible this season.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Peter Abrahamsson, Rasmus Lindgren, Joel Andersson, Jasmin Sudic, Emil Wahlstrom, Alexander Faltsetas, Nasiru Mohammed, Mohammed Abubakari, Alexander Farnerud, Paulinho, Alhassan Kamara.

The Wasps have been building huge plans and hoping for a good season for years, but, so far, unsuccessfully. There are enough reasons for high places as the team has a very strong squad, but there is always something missing. Hacken always look powerful in the attack and when they can sort out their defensive problems, they will take higher places. Nevertheless, we have already seen all this before and the team will be most likely satisfied with their place in the middle of the standings this season again.

Prediction: 6th – 9th place.

What to bet on? The answer is simple – bet on Hacken to score 2 or more goals at Bravida Arena in Gothenburg. It always works!

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Kevin Stuhr Ellegaard, Adam Lundqvist, Jorgen Horn, Joakim Nilsson, Jesper Manns, Simon Lundevall, Daniel Gustavsson, Issam Jebali, Alex Dyer, Viktor Prodell, Per Frick.

The Yellow Ones became Allsvenskan Winners in 2012 but they were no longer able to compete with local grandees for the championship. It is worth noting that over the years the club has never dropped below the sixth place. They usually finish in 4th or 5th position. In any case, Elfsborg have regressed rather than progressed in recent years, so no one will be surprised if they fall below the sixth place this year.

Prediction: 7th – 8th place.

What to bet on? Regardless of how unsuccessful the season will be for the Elegants, they will still produce quality football at Boras Arena and score a lot. ‘Home win & Over 2.5’ will be a good choice during all season.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Evgeni Kobozev, Joakim Karlsson, Andre Calisir, Tom Siwe, Stefan Karlsson, Daryl Smylie, Robert Gojani, Fredric Fendrich, Dzenis Kozica, Tommy Thelin, Arni Vilhjalmsson.

Last year Södra have proved that they are fighters with a strong character. It’s unlikely that the team will get relegated this season despite their weak squad. The main Jonkopings` advantages are team spirit and perfect co-ordination! When these guys are in a good shape, they are able to beat even leaders. Södra will not rise above the middle of the standings, but will certainly create a few sensational moments.

Prediction: 10th – 12th place.

What to bet on? The bookmakers have always underrated this club. A bet on a home win at high odds can become value in the long run.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Oscar Jansson, Michael Almeback, Martin Lorentzson, Hjortur Logi Valgardsson, Johan Martensson, Maic Sema, Nordin Gerzic, Nahir Besara, Damien Plessis, Kennedy Igboananike, Victor Skold.

Orebro used to spend seasons rather good. The team confidently finishes in the middle of the standings and has never been on the brink of relegation. However, the problem is that the team has made no progress since their return to Allswenkan. This year the squad has not become stronger and Orebro is likely to perform worse than usual.

Prediction: Orebro won’t get relegated, but finish the season near the risk zone.

What to bet on? Orebro will be an unpredictable team and most likely this season will be the series of successes and failures for them. The team will always play an attacking and spectacular football. It makes sense to pay attention to bets ‘Over 2.5’.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Tommy Naurin, Eric Larsson, Marcus Danielsson, Dennis Olsson, David Myrestam, Juho Pirttijoki, Lars Gerson, Kristinn Steindorsson, Erik Granat, Linus Hallenius, Peter Wilson.

Sundsvall are a small club with a big heart, the team does not have star players, but due to their virile character and total dedication they can achieve surprising results. Giffarna have a powerful offence line and are able to break through any defence. They will have to work really hard this year, but they won’t face relegation.

Prediction: Successful relegation battle, but the middle of the standings is also possible.

What to bet on? Sundsvall team is a hard-to-beat at Norrporten Arena so ‘Home win’ will be a good bet. In addition, given their offensive potential ‘Over 2.5’ and ‘BTTS’ are must have bets!

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Ole Soderberg, Marko Biskupovic, Emin Nouri, Markus Thorbjornsson, Rasmus Elm, Viktor Elm, Ismael Silva Lima, Romario Pereira Sipiao, Melker Hallberg, Tobias Eriksson, Mans Soderqvist.

It`s hard to predict the future of this club! On the one hand, Kalmar are an experienced fighter for survival and worth ranking in the middle of the standings. Two legendary Red Brothers – Rasmus Elm (used to played AZ and CSKA Moscow) and Viktor Elm (used to played AZ and Heerenveen) with transfer market values of 1.5 million Euros are in their squad. There are no more expensive players in Allsvenskan! There are only a few more players worth 1.5 million Euros in Sweden and all of them play in the top clubs. On the other hand, Kalmar have built a strong squad but every season they still face serious problems. This season won’t be an exception.

Prediction: Relegation battle.

What to bet on? Better bet on their opponents…

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Malkolm Nilsson, Fredrik Liverstam, Jesper Westerberg, Marcus Mathisen, Adnan Kojic, Sead Haksabanovic, Nikolai Alho, Ivo Pekalski, Aboubakar Keita, Alexander Ruud Tveter, Fredrik Olsson.

Four-time champion HBK are going through hard times now! The team managed to return to the elite division, but it seems that this year they will go back to the Superettan. Halmstad have too weak squad! If you estimate the starting XI, then their total value will be about 3 million Euros, which is equal to the value of Elm brothers from Kalmar. Even if HBK demonstrate their best football they will still have little chance to stay in Allsvenskan next year with such squad.

Prediction: Relegation battle.

What to bet on? Halmstad have a poor line of offence, so bets on their opponents "To win to nil" will be an interesting choice.

The absence of what players can affect the strength of the team?

Alireza Haghighi, Daniel Bjornkvist, Ludvig Ohman, Zurab Tsiskaridze, Emmanuel Frimpong, Anel Raskaj, Thomas Piermayr, Mauricio Albornoz, Sasa Matic, Omar Eddahri, Mohamed Buya Turay.

AFC Eskilstuna have the weakest squad in the division, the average value of a player of starting XI is about 0.3 million Euros, and this speaks for itself. The team has its own star Ghanaian midfielder Emmanuel Frimpong (he spent 10 years in England, played for Arsenal, Fulham and Charlton), but as you know, one cannot conquer alone. This year will be a valuable and useful experience for a young club, but they will go straight to Superettan.

Prediction: The main contender for the last place.

What to bet on? Taking a hammering can become a normal and usual result.

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