What is Value Betting and How To Find Value Bets
No pain – no gain! So, even when you are almost blackout, even when you feel yourself terrible – you should remember that the bookie is the aim to beat. And the wellhead of moneymaking, of course! As a rule, bookies offer odds using the math simulators. Here hides the way to fight them, and that way names Value Betting!
But first step of understanding always belongs to theory, so first of all you should realize how to figure out bookies odds. What does William Hill mean when offers 2.20 Chelsea to bash Manchester United? Is it something like «Conte is better than Mourinho»? Oh, c’mon! That only means chances-building in the bookmaker simulator model. And it’s easy to calculate probability the bookie represent:
1/odds = bookie’s probability
1/2.2 = 45.45%
Basically percentage signifies WH thinks Chelsea’ll grab the win with probability 45.45 (to win) – 54.55 (not to win: means draw or MU to win). But William Hill are the bookie, every bookmaker is like that leopard – having no way to change its spots! The bookies use math and are forced to make balance odds in their offers. So what should you do with those «leopards»? Just be the hunter (some ties go to «punter» or «tipster» or «bettor», yeah?)! Frankly speaking, value betting is all about this. Value is your advantage, your arm to beat bookmakers.
For example, you think that here is classic 50/50 game with Conte’s and Mourinho’s boys. Thus, you should calculate probabilities according to odds and what’ll you find?
1/your expectations = your correct odds
1/50 = 2
So we got our own chances and our odds. Than we should compare our results with bookie’s offers and here we are! Bookmaker offers 2.20, you are expecting for 50/50 game, so use the value formalizing:
(Bookie’s odds*your expectations) -1 = value
(2.2*50) -1 = 1.1
Lock-stock, and that’s simple way how to find value bets. All you need is comparing odds vs your own expectations (probability) and if during this calculation you have got >1 – that’s the value! And you should be about to place this founded bet immediately, `cause value betting brings your pocket bookmaker’s money.
So stop the rat race, don’t be just odds-oriented and be value-oriented. That’s so quick and dirty mode: bettor makes success when bookmaker makes mistake. Bookies generate odds 24/7/365, as a rule their daily application includes more than 1000 leagues and more than 20 sport types. Long list is always vulnerable, even when bookie considers that math simulator works perfectly – bettor grabs a pole-position!
How could it be real? It’s pure and simple! The right way to take bookmakers money is to find more information they’ve got and make the decision during placing your tips. Value betting attitudes to tipster’s knowledge: what’s the news, what’s the team squad, how do they usually play? Bookmakers are not able to check all information during offering the odds, but tipsters are! So don’t place your bets at random, just use value betting rules and the results will come quickly. This universal advice also belongs to bookie-selecting, `cause when you find the right bookie – you find the moneymaking area.